Last summer, Steven Spielberg offered a bold prediction...that the movie business was rapidly headed toward a steep cliff, and implosion was imminent.
"...there's eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."
Steven Spielberg practically invented the modern movie industry...along with his pal George Lucas, they created the seminal blockbusters of the 70s and 80s that transformed the movie business into the formulaic sausage factory it is today.
Like the Frankenstein monster, Spielberg's creation has betrayed him...at the same talk, he went on about about barely being able to get his film 'Lincoln' made as a theatrical production (studios wanted it for TV). This is a man who personally took home $250M from 'Jurassic Park'. A man who at one point got sent every hot script in Hollywood as a first look to direct the film. A man who was so feared that even Harvey Weinstein (who was, for a time, the most fierce personality in the film business) was terrified of crossing him. A man who could get any film made.
But not anymore. If there is anything that screams the movie business has been radically altered, it's that Steven Spielberg has been relegated to hat-in-hand filmmaker who has just as much trouble getting a film off the ground as an NYU film student. 'The Trial of the Chicago 7' was to be a Spielberg film until he ran into problems getting a green light.
So what the fuck is going on?
Blockbusters are making more than ever, but the bland, safe, disposable, impersonal nature of blockbusters means that there isn't much room anymore for subtlety or nuance. Spielberg still makes them, and they make good money ($750M for Indy 4), but he's always been a man who's swapped genres like socks, and could easily get a Lincoln or Chicago 7 made based on the goodwill from his blockbusters.
But not anymore. Michael Bay had to make 3, billion dollar busting Transformers movies before he was allowed to make a little movie like Pain and Gain. Christopher Nolan has yet to make a "small" movie since TDK. What will studios say after Interstellar drops when he wants to make a costume drama? "Just another Batman Chris, then you have our blessing"?
Where is all this leading? Video-On-Demand/streaming services are catching on strong. The once incredibly profitable DVD market is a shadow of its former self. High Definition TVs have been great for the Bluray market, but is it the gold mine the former DVD market used to be? No. Higher resolution TVs have introduced more options from online services, not to mention smaller devices like tablets and smart phones. People are ditching hard media for instant streaming convenience.
There is a great divide happening, where the selling point of a film isn't necessarily the film itself anymore, but the various ways you can watch it. 2D, 2D IMAX, 3D, 3D IMAX, DVD, BluRay, streaming, cloud, special edition, deluxe edition, anniversary edition...
And since the studios are spending more money to not only make these gargantuan films, but to advertise them and the various ways you can watch them, they're having to hike ticket prices up to justify the cost. Theatrical showings of World War Z had a $50 deluxe option where you got some trinkets to go along with the experience...George Lucas recently said that going to the movies would become more like going to a Broadway show. Higher prices, longer length theatrical runs.
Now personally, what I see is like the very tail end of a drunken high roller streak, where the guy at the table is up...WAY up. That would be Hollywood, with some of the best grosses in the history of the movie business in the last several years. They're drunk on success, feeling good, and sure they can't lose. But perpetual gambling is an addiction, not a science...there is no rational reason to continue betting huge hands just because you've been winning..,you are not applying logic and reason based on evidence of win patterns during that time of year...you're betting because you're feeling good and want that feeling to continue. But by betting more and more money, the question isn't whether or not you'll crash, it's how big the crash will be and how soon it will happen. It's as sure as death and taxes.
Spielberg is a smart guy. Out of half a dozen fellow filmmakers, he was the only one to predict Star Wars would be the biggest film of all time. He has an instinct and I trust his judgement...especially since he's been around the top tier of Hollywood for several decades. If he thinks the film business is going to implode, I wouldn't bet any money against it.
